Public policy and the changing landscape     

Nancy?E.?BockstaelEmail author  Elena?G.?Irwin 《Estuaries and Coasts》2003,26(2):210-225

The paper illustrates how spatially explicit forecasting of residential development can be undertaken and how it can be made sensitive to policy instruments available to local and state governments. Predicted values in residential use based on a hedonic analysis of residential property prices is found to have a significant effect on the hazard of development in a survival model used to explain the likelihood that a farm or forest will be converted to residential use. Policy instruments are imbedded in both the hedonic model of residential property values and a hazard model of parcel conversion, so as to test how effective changes in policies can be at changing the pattern of land-use change. Some of the statistical and modeling obstacles that impede progress on this spatially explicit modeling are also discussed.  相似文献   

On the Structure of Symplectic Mappings. The Fast Lyapunov Indicator: a Very Sensitive Tool     

Claude Froeschlé  Elena Lega 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2000,78(1-4):167-195

It is already known (Froeschlé, Lega and Gonczi, 1997) that the Fast Lyapunov Indicator (FLI), that is the computation on a relatively short time of the largest Lyapunov indicator, allows to discriminate between ordered and weak chaotic motion. We have found that, under certain conditions, the FLI also discriminates between resonant and non-resonant orbits, not only for two-dimensional symplectic mappings but also for higher dimensional ones. Using this indicator, we present an example of the Arnold web detection for four and six-dimensional symplectic maps. We show that this method allows to detect the global transition of the system from an exponentially stable Nekhoroshevs like regime to the diffusive Chirikovs one.  相似文献   

Assessment of groundwater pollution risk as a characteristic of the stability of its quality     

A. P. Belousova 《Water Resources》2006,33(2):219-232

Definitions of hazard and risk of groundwater pollution are given. A deterministic method for the assessment of groundwater pollution risk using estimates of groundwater protection against and vulnerability to pollution and stability indicators of groundwater quality is considered. Also presented are the principal methodological approaches to the assessment of groundwater protection against pollution and the formation of the structure of indicators and indices characterizing the stability of groundwater quality. The structure of hazard, risks, and damages associated with groundwater pollution is shown. Expert appraisal method is used for the assessment of groundwater pollution risks.  相似文献   

The composition of liquids coexisting with dense hydrous magnesium silicates at 11-13.5 GPa and the endpoints of the solidi in the MgO-SiO₂-H₂O system     

Elena Melekhova  Max W. Schmidt  Peter Ulmer 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2007,71(13):3348-3360

High-pressure liquids in the MgO-SiO₂-H₂O (MSH) system have been investigated at 11 and 13.5 GPa and between 1000 and 1350 °C. A bulk composition more magnesian than the tie-line forsterite-H₂O was employed for the study. Rocking multi-anvil experiments were combined with a diamond trap set-up. After termination of the experiments, the liquid trapped in the diamond layer was analysed by laser ablation ICP-MS using the ‘freezing’ technique. At 11 GPa, liquids coexist with one or two of phase A, clinohumite, chondrodite, and forsterite. A marked discontinuity in the evolution of liquid compositions near 1100 °C is observed at 11 GPa. A step of ∼13 wt% H₂O and 13 wt% MgO is interpreted to result from overstepping the fluid-saturated solidus reaction mass balanced to 1.00(18) phase A + 1.07(4) fluid = 0.63(15) chondrodite + 1.44(2) melt. At 13.5 GPa liquids coexist with one or two of hydrous wadsleyite, clinohumite, superhydrous B, phase B, and forsterite. The discontinuity in liquid composition is no longer present, indicating that the second critical endpoint of the solidus has been overstepped. Thus, hydrous melts in the Mg-rich part of the MSH system (molar bulk Mg/Si > 2) are chemically distinct from aqueous fluids at pressure up to 11 GPa. Convergence of fluid and melt compositions along the solidus resulting in a supercritical liquid occurs between 11 and 13.5 GPa, at which pressure the entire MSH system becomes supercritical.  相似文献   

3D structure of the Earth's crust beneath the northern part of the Bohemian Massif   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

Mariusz Majda&#x;ski  Elena Kozlovskaya  Marek Grad  SUDETES Working Group 《Tectonophysics》2007,437(1-4):17-36

The SUDETES 2003 wide-angle refraction/reflection experiment covered the area of the south-western Poland and the northern Bohemian Massif. The good quality data that were gathered combined with the data from previous experiments (POLONAISE'97, CELEBRATION 2000) allowed us to prepare a 3D seismic model of the crust and uppermost mantle for this area. We inverted travel times of both refracted and reflected P waves using the JIVE3D package. This allowed us to obtain a model of P-wave velocity distribution as well as the shape of major boundaries in the crust. We also present a detailed uncertainty analysis for both the boundary depths and the velocity field. In doing the uncertainty analysis we found an interesting, strong dependence between uncertainty and inversion scheme (order of used phases). We also compared the model with surface geology and found good correlation between velocity inhomogeneities in the uppermost crust (down to 2 km) and major geological units. The higher velocity lower crust (6.9–7.2 km/s) could result from remelting of the lower crust or magmatic underplating.  相似文献   

Comparison of convergence towards invariant distributions for rotation angles, twist angles and local Lyapunov characteristic numbers     

Elena Lega  Claude Froeschl 《Planetary and Space Science》1998,46(11-12)

Using the standard map as a model problem and in the spirit of cluster analysis we have studied the invariance of the distributions of different indicators introduced to detect and measure weak chaos. We show that the problem is less straightforward than expected and that, except for very strong chaotic dynamical systems, all the complexities (islands, sticking phenomena, cantori) of mixed Hamiltonian systems are reflected into the indicators of convergence towards invariant distributions.  相似文献   

CCD Surface Photometry of Nearby Active Galaxies     

M. Sánchez Portal  A.I. Diaz  M. Álvarez Álvarez  Roberto Terlevich  Elena Terlevich  Itziar Aretxaga 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1998,263(1-4):107-110

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Solar constant and sunspots     

Mario Bossolasco  Guiseppe Cicconi  Ignazio Dagnino  Antonio Elena  Giuseppe Flocchini 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1965,62(1):207-214

Summary The relationship, already found by the authors, between sunspot numbers and the solar constant, as deduced from the highest global irradiance values at noon, is here reexamined and confirmed. Some attempts at explanation and further inferences are presented.  相似文献   

Efficient design of direct low-energy transfers in multi-moon systems     

Elena Fantino  Roberto Castelli 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2017,127(4):429-450

In this contribution, an efficient technique to design direct (i.e., without intermediate flybys) low-energy trajectories in multi-moon systems is presented. The method relies on analytical two-body approximations of trajectories originating from the stable and unstable invariant manifolds of two coupled circular restricted three-body problems. We provide a means to perform very fast and accurate computations of the minimum-cost trajectories between two moons. Eventually, we validate the methodology by comparison with numerical integrations in the three-body problem. Motivated by the growing interest in the robotic exploration of the Jovian system, which has given rise to numerous studies and mission proposals, we apply the method to the design of minimum-cost low-energy direct trajectories between Galilean moons, and the case study is that of Ganymede and Europa.  相似文献   

Contrasting patterns of precipitation seasonality during the Holocene in the south‐ and north‐central Mediterranean     

Michel Magny  Odile Peyron  Laura Sadori  Elena Ortu  Giovanni Zanchetta  Boris Vannière  Willy Tinner 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(3):290-296

Pollen‐based quantitative estimates of seasonal precipitation from Lake Pergusa and lake‐level data from Lake Preola in Sicily (southern Italy) allow three successive periods to be distinguished within the Holocene: an early Holocene period before ca. 9800 cal a BP with rather dry climate conditions in winter and summer, a mid‐Holocene period between ca. 9800 and 4500 cal a BP with maximum winter and summer wetness, and a late Holocene period after 4500 cal a BP with declining winter and summer wetness. This evolution observed in the south‐central Mediterranean shows strong similarities to that recognized in the eastern Mediterranean. But, it contrasts with that reconstructed in north‐central Italy, where the mid‐Holocene appears to be characterized by a winter (summer) precipitation maximum (minimum), while the late Holocene coincided with a decrease (increase) in winter (summer) precipitation. Maximum precipitation at ca. 10 000–4500 cal a BP may have resulted from (i) increased local convection in response to a Holocene insolation maximum at 10 000 cal a BP and then (ii) the gradual weakening of the Hadley cell activity, which allowed the winter rainy westerlies to reach the Mediterranean area more frequently. After 4500 cal a BP, changes in precipitation seasonality may reflect non‐linear responses to orbitally driven insolation decrease in addition to seasonal and inter‐hemispheric changes of insolation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献